Eighty-five (85%) of the jobs today’s students will be doing in 2030 haven’t been invented yet.
Institute for the Future
I’ve seen the Future of Work. And, I don’t like it. Why? In Portland Oregon, a retail store sells kombucha, a slightly alcoholic green or black tea. Great location. Great storefront. Sure money maker! But, why don’t I like it?
Look through the store window. Lots of customers are sitting at tables trying and sipping kombucha. So, we decided to go in and partake. Can’t get in. We needed to swipe a card to unlock the door. We get in, look around and can’t find any service person to place an order. Huh? A customer says: ‘it’s self-serve’. OK. Customers and no help. The entire shop was automated. No workers. Is this the future of bars, restaurants, and retail? Maybe. A recent report said that 70% of ‘first jobs’ such as retail are automatable.
The fear of massive job losses started about six years ago when University of Oxford released a report of job losses due to automation. The university reported that 47% of current U.S. jobs are at risk being impacted by or totally displaced by automation and artificial intelligence in 20 years or less.[i] In the latest Oxfor report, the numbers got worse, OK a lot worse – 80% of jobs in retail, transportation warehousing, and logistics are at risk and 63% of sales jobs were at risk pre COVID. And by the way, the job losses and changes NOW will happen in 5 to 10 years or even less time.
Work Lesson Earned: The automation of work is a global challenge. There are not enough high paying jobs for VUCANs and specifically recent college graduates. Millennial and Gen Z generations believe their economic future is guaranteed with any college education. The global reality is many recent college graduates are unemployed and/or underemployed as well as many older workers. The fear is real! The number of unemployed and/or underemployed college graduates can range from 40% to 60% in many countries. Hong Kong riots by highly educated Chinese is caused by lack of opportunities. This could be a cauldron of social unrest if these expectations and desires are not fulfilled.
[i] ‘New Report Warns 80% of Retail Jobs At Risk From Automation’, Oxford Martin School, September 1, 2017.